A jajibirin taron FOMC,cryptocurrencykasuwar da ta yi tashin gwauron zabo a 'yan kwanakin da suka gabata, ta koma tabarbarewa.Bayan ya tashi zuwa $21,085 a ranar 29th,Bitcoin (BTC)ya ragu zuwa dala 20,237 a daren jiya, kuma an bayar da rahoton a kan dala 20,568 a karshen wa'adin, kusan 24 An samu karuwar sa'o'i 0.52%;ether (ETH)ya kasance a $1,580, ya karu da 1.56% a cikin awanni 24 da suka gabata.
Fed zai ba da sanarwar yanke shawarar ƙimar riba da ƙarfe 2:00 na safe agogon Beijing a ranar 3rd.Dangane da bayanai daga kayan aikin Fed Watch na Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), kasuwa a halin yanzu yana tsammanin cewa Fed zai yanke shawarar haɓaka ƙimar riba ta yadi 3 zuwa 3.75% a wannan makon.Akwai damar 87.2% na haɓaka ƙimar 4.00% da damar 12.8% na ƙimar ƙimar yadi 2 zuwa 3.50% zuwa 3.75%.
Wani bayanin da ya kamata a kula shi ne, Amurka za ta sanar da adadin wadanda ba aikin gona ba a watan Oktoba da karfe 20:30 agogon Beijing a ranar 4 ga wata.Dangane da bayanan FXStreet, kasuwaa halin yanzukiyasin cewa adadin albashin da ba na noma zai karu da 200,000, wanda ya yi kasa da na baya Ana sa ran rashin aikin yi zai karu zuwa 3.6% daga 3.5%.
Hannun jarin Amurka na iya tashi sosai idan yawan riba ya haura yadi 2
A lokaci guda, a cewar "Bloomberg", sashen ciniki na JPMorgan ya annabta cewa idan Fed ya yanke shawarar haɓaka ƙimar riba kawai 2 yadudduka a wannan makon, Shugaban Reserve na Tarayya Jerome Powell (Jerome Powell) ya bayyana niyyarsa ta jure wa taron bayan taron. taro.Tare da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da ƙaƙƙarfan kasuwar aiki, S&P 500 na iya haɓaka aƙalla 10% a cikin kwana ɗaya.
Kungiyar JPMorgan Chase, ciki har da manazarci Andrew Tyler, ya fada a fili a cikin bayanin abokin ciniki a ranar Litinin cewa irin wannan yanayin zai kasance "mafi ƙanƙanta" amma zai zama "mafi kyawun sakamako" ga masu saka hannun jari.A cikin kwanaki shida na yanke shawara na Fed, S & P 500 ya tashi sau hudu kuma ya fadi sau biyu.
JPMorgan yana tsammanin Fed zai ci gaba da haɓaka ƙimar ta wani yadi 3 a wannan makon, daidai da matsakaicin hasashen masana tattalin arziki da Bloomberg ya yi, kuma ƙungiyar Andrew Tyler tana ganin ƙarancin damar wasu al'amura.
Game da tsinkayar S & P 500, rahoton ya rubuta cewa: Sakamakon yana karkatar da hankali, kamar yadda muka yi imani cewa kasuwa yana da dalili mai kyau don sake gwadawa a makon da ya gabata saboda rashin jin dadi na manyan kayan fasaha na fasaha, amma ya ci gaba da tashi.Ma'anar tattaunawar ita ce, ƙoƙarin gano su wanene masu tallace-tallace masu karuwa, kuma mun yi imanin cewa hadarin / lada yana karkatar da shi zuwa sama.
Anan ne hasashen ƙungiyar JPMorgan Chase don yuwuwar jagorar S&P 500 akan ranar yanke shawara na Fed:
● Ƙimar ƙimar yadi 2 da taron manema labarai bayan dovish: S&P 500 sama da 10% -12%
● Yawan hawan yadi 2 da taron manema labarai bayan hawk: S&P 500 sama da 4% zuwa 5%
● Ƙimar ƙimar yadi 3 da taron manema labaru bayan dovish (na biyu mafi mahimmanci): S&P 500 sama da 2.5% -3%
● Ƙimar ƙimar yadi 3 da taron manema labaru bayan hawkish (mafi yiwuwa): S&P 500 ya ragu da 1% don samun 0.5%
● Ƙimar ƙimar yadi 4 da taron manema labarai bayan dovish: S&P 500 ƙasa 4% zuwa 5%
● Ƙimar ƙimar yadi 4 da taron manema labarai bayan hawk: S&P 500 ƙasa 6% zuwa 8%
Lokacin aikawa: Nov-11-2022